The cause of 1970-2000 warming.

  • We present initial findings showing a correlation between warming over Quebec & major US “flying holidays”.
  • Research from NASA shows cirrus clouds, formed by contrails from aircraft engine exhaust, can account for a warming trend in the United States that occurred between 1975 and 1994.
  • Previous work has shown a similar global relationship between industrialised and warming “hot spots”
  • As such 1970-2000 warming now appears to be strongly linked to aeroplane contrails

Introduction – the land-sea temperature divergence

As many have identified, the land and sea temperature records have been diverging since around 1970. This from NoTricksZone

HadCRUT-1900-2010-Land-vs-Sea-Temperatures

Regional Hotspots

Interestingly this graphic comes from a paper linking this same divergence in NoTricksZones with urban heating. However, there is a problem with their hypothesis and that is the regional distribution of this warming as shown below:SO2

I showed that the Northern Hemisphere hotspots over this time period were clearly linked to areas of economic activity by being about 3-8days downwind in the direction of the normal surface wind direction.  (But see discussion).

Continue reading

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Help needed from Old Americans who can remember 1950s re old July 4th celebrations

I’ve found a lot of evidence that pollution in the 1970s cooled the climate and that the ending of this pollution caused the 1970-2000 warming. I’m trying to test this hypothesis by looking for a link between events like the 4th July which involve fireworks and smoke and a dip in temperatures.

The early indications are that I’m finding a definite “dip” (the dip is still in the noise – but almost every station appears to have a dip). But my expectation was that the trend would deepen toward the present. In contrast, I’m finding that the dip is reducing.

My reasoning for expecting a deepening dip, is  based on my experience in the UK where on the 5th Nov, the sky now seems to be filled with fireworks with everyone apparently having boxes of fireworks including massive mega-blasters – nothing like when we were kids. The result is far more smoke than I remember as a child.

But I’m starting to get indications the temperature dip from the 4th July was greater in the 1950s/60s.

That’s raising questions which living in the UK I’m unable to answer. So if you are American and particularly if old enough to remember the 1950s or even 1960s you could help me immensely.

The questions I have are as follows:

  1. When do the US celebrate the 4th July
    This may sound an odd question, but I’m getting a dip in temperatures much earlier than expected. I have read suggestions that it was common at one time to celebrate on the evening of the 3rd July.
  2. Is it always the 4th July
    I read somewhere that if the 4th July is on a Sunday, the celebrations are on another day. Is this true ?
  3. What smoke etc. was common in the 1950s/1960?
    The decreasing size of the dip worries me. So I’d really like to know the relative frequency of the following and whether there is more or less now:

    1. Simple bonfires (both family and community)
    2. BBQs
    3. Fireworks
    4. Was the 4th July an occasion for Long car journeys.
  4. Did Industry Shut down
    Being a holiday many companies would shut down. Again was this more or less common in the 1950s/60s

Finally, is there any thing else that may have caused an electricity or power surge, or resulted in any activity that would increase or reduce energy use or pollution?

Thanking you in Advance

I would really appreciate your help because if I can find what activity has reduced since the 1950/60s then this would really help me zero in on the cause of early 20th century cooling – which if the hypothesis is correct, then produced warming as this cooling pollution was reduced from 1970-2000.

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The biggest global experiment disproving CO2 as the main cause of late 20th century warming

Great news! The UK, Chinese, India and US government and have all consented to allow this hugely important experiment to proceed!

Having examined temperature records and the global distribution of warming I am now convinced that early-style pollution associated globally in the 1970s with SO2 emissions caused cooling, and that the rapid reduction in this form of pollution from 1970-2000 led to the warming spike in this period and consequentially to the Pause in warming approximately from 2000.

greatsmogHowever, as I showed in a previous article, modern technology apparently does not have the same effect. This explains why studies simply tracking pollutants find little correlation. It was not the pollutant so much as how the pollutant was released that had the effect. So  whatever was causing the temperature change now seems to have disappeared – which makes trying to find it extremely difficult: because how do you prove the effect of something that now does not exist?

But the obvious suspect is that “primitive” technology like burning raw coal in an open hearth may have been the principle cause of cooling. Thus the suspect is that widespread low level pollution as you get from burning coal in households. We certainly know it had dramatic effect on the weather creating effects like the London smog (as shown above). Continue reading

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Is the regionality of the little ice-age proof against CO2 warming?

Reading the official mouthpiece of the Greenblob (wikipedia) I read:

The NASA Earth Observatory notes three particularly cold intervals: one beginning about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, all separated by intervals of slight warming.

“Little Ice Age” can only be considered as a modest cooling of the Northern Hemisphere during this period of less than 1°C relative to late twentieth century levels.

Of course the intention here has been to try to deny the natural variation in the climate. However a thought has struck me. I know Scottish industrialisation was well under way by 1750 – because by that time almost every tree in Scotland had been cut down.

In my last article I was exploring what could have caused the 1970-2000 warming, and a prime candidate is the reduction of previous pollution. But the flip side of that coin is that we expect cooling to have occurred when that pollution was first introduced. If that pollution was coal and wood burning in Europe, then the timing is not bad and it would every easily explain the “Northern Hemisphere” little ice-age.

We are all familiar with images like this used by academia to attack our industrial heritage. But could this image show the cause of the little ice-age? Pollution induced cooling, that – thanks to environmental action in the 1970s was then reversed, causing warming?

Portrayal of Blackcountry

Portrayal of Blackcountry

If so, the following may be very strong proof AGAINST CO2:

  • The regionality of the little ice-age
  • The warming of the Arctic – without the necessary warming of the Antarctic which is what is needed if the GLOBE is warming
  • The warming of the northern hemisphere land – which paradoxically NASA use to scare the pants off the public, but which in fact is PROOF AGAINST GLOBAL warming

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Pause for thought

(Sorry not an April fool – I was planning something but I was making such progress I didn’t have time to complete).

After examining the temperature records with a view to creating a single “reliable” record, I realised that something odd had happened around 1970 that caused Northern hemisphere land records to sharply warm compared to sea based and southern hemisphere.

Reconstruction2

Then when I found that the long-term warming could be closely linked to industrial zones the evidence seemed overwhelming that in some way pollution and not CO2 was responsible. Continue reading

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Animation proving link between SO2 reducing areas and warming

I’ve put together this map to show how the areas with reducing SO2 emissions in the period 2001-11 (blue) are linked by the trade winds with warming hotspots as shown by the 2001-11 GISS map. This shows that virtually the entire northern hemisphere’s climate change can be attributed to the location of areas that has their SO2 emission reduced. This strongly links warming in this area to reductions in SO2.

Note however that India and China have been increasing SO2 emissions. (Red) which are not obviously linked to cooling. This suggests that the warming was caused by some old technology that was taken out of service causing the warming and that new technology no longer has the effect.

SO2The above map links together:

  1. Change in regional distribution of anthropogenic land based SO2 emissions. Changes indicated as a difference between 2010 and 2005 emissions in 0.5° × 0.5° grids. http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014003
  2. Trade wind directions
  3. The GISS map of annual (January to December) temperature trend (change) from 2001 to 2011. The –0.01 in the top right corner is the global trend figure, 0.01°C cooling. Source.

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More on China SO2

First let’s show the maps that make me so excited

SO2 emissions as seen via satellite:

Figure-7-Global-distribution-of-SO2-columns-from-nearly-clear-sky-OMI-measurements

Now let’s focus on that Chinese plume which I’ve highlighted in green:

SO2_2

Now let’s see the temperature trend map for this area:

SO2_1As you can see, there is an area of cooling at the actual area of emissions, which then turn into warming. And the warming hotspot almost exactly fits the area shown with high levels of SO2. And overlaying them both:

SO2_3And the rough distance from centre of production to centre of the hotspot is 2500miles.

Finally the issue of whether SO2 emissions have gone up or down 2001-2011.

Note China SO2 reducing

Note China SO2 reducing

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Why climate models fail!

After publishing my previous article showing very strong that pollution works in two different ways to affect the climate: one causing warming and the other cooling, I was asked the question: “don’t the climate models include aerosols/SO2″

The simple answer is in this graphic showing the presumed radiative forcings from the IPCC. And no you don’t need to squint, it’s not there!

Yes, it may be included in a small way in some models – particularly when it originates from volcanoes, but the IPCC do not consider SO2 to affect the climate in a significant way. THEY ARE VERY WRONG.

Because if SO2 when emitted in one causing cooling (at low levels) and when emitted in another way causes warming (when at high level), if you simply use the total SO2 being emitted (if there is a substantial amount of cooling and warming effect) then you will find a very bad correlation with SO2 as a total

However, if you were to treat the different mechanisms of release as two separate pollutants (even if the chemical is the same) and allow for both cooling and warming, then you will find a very good correlation with their actual effect.

Let’s try to put some flesh on that. Below is a graph of use of coal in the UK by sector:

uk-coal-2-2As you can see, the use in homes was fairly constant from 1945 to 1965 and then started to decline. Given that household coal use was well known for producing smogs particularly in London, we know the effect was low level and therefore would predominantly have caused cooling. That this was likely a significant cause of cooling until 1965 when the level of cooling reduced – resulting in a warming contribution from 1965-to around 2000.

In contrast, coal use for electricity rose from 1945 to peak in ~1990. If this produced high-level SO2 effects, then it would cause warming. So, between the peak of household use and the peak of electricity use, we probably had both a cooling and warming effect from coal in the UK. And depending on the relative scale of effect, during this period for these two uses, the net contribution could be warming or cooling.

So the effect of coal (and hence SO2) is not correlated with the total SO2 emissions (as used in the climate models) but instead we have to treat the different types of use as distinct and would expect correlation with them individually not in total.

And note: in the UK there was a political decision to stop using coal for electricity so this peak in ~1990 will be local to the UK

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Important!! Air pollution causes both Cooling AND warming

I’ve been working on the relationship between pollution and warming hotspots. Fortunately I’ve been using the general term “pollution” and not attributing the change to any specific chemicals or particles. Because things went a bit haywire as you will read.

Note this graphic contains two very different data sets. It is only for illustration.

Note this graphic contains two very different data sets. It is only for illustration.

1970+ warming trends

First lets recap the 1970s warming trend.To the right I’ve combined two graphs to show the general patter during the late 20th century of rising pollution to the 1970s in industrialised areas and then falling  – followed by a final “we can’t cut pollution more than nothing” tailing off of the curve.

In compiling this article, I came across some interesting satellite images from NASA which help to visualise the density and location  of pollution in the US and Europe:

15-233-usa

Note this shows reduction in NO2 – which is a proxy economic activity and other pollutants. It shows these concentrated in NE US.

EuropePollution

This is a map of NO2 pollution areas in Europe.

Continue reading

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Evidence for air pollution affecting climate

I’ve gathered together some material on air pollution and its affects on climate. This shows very conclusively that the link has been known for some time … however, the associated commentary has been moved to a new article as I just come across some important findings that need more space.

Continue reading

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