For a while I’ve been saying to anyone that would listen that the UK was extremely unlikely to come to a deal with the dysfunctional EU in a mere 2 years. This was obvious from the way it took the basketcase of countries in the EU 7 years to reach a simple trade agreement with Canada. Britain’s future relationship is much more complex and any sane person would therefore see it taking at least a decade if not many decades to finally come to some settled agreement between us.
However, it was always possible that a strong stable government with a huge backing from the UK populace might have the authority to push for their own version of an agreement with the EU. And I knew that whatever form that took, both I and a lot of other UK citizens for a variety of reasons would hate it. But that was the only agreement possible – something that a strong government pushed through despite much internal and external opposition.
However, there really is far too much nonsense talked about the need for an “agreement”. Because when we leave without an EU deal, we just revert back to the same rules that govern trade between the EU and many other countries. It’s not the end of the world, but instead will be a kick up the backside of the UK to stop looking inward to the land-locked and politically and culturally obnoxious EU and start looking outward to the rest of the world.
That however is now entirely academic – because there will not be any deal. And the reason is simple. The EU have agreed that:
no agreement on the EU’s future relationship with the UK would apply to Gibraltar without the consent of Spain (express)
Spain will not agree to any EU agreement with the UK unless the UK ditches Gibraltar … and that is something we will not do (unless that is the will of the population).