I’ve been examining how global planetary temperature can be predicted from various things like pressure and tropospheric height. The reason for this is that planets appear to have their tropopause at a constant 0.1bar pressure. And like a thermometer as the temperature of the atmosphere increases, the “bulb” of the atmosphere should expand. And if the tropopause is at a fixed pressure with increasing temperature, the tropopause should rise in height – but at the same pressure because the weight of atmosphere above it remains the same.
For more detail see previous article
I was trying to find any evidence for this rising tropopause effect when I came across a section in the 2007 IPCC report 18.104.22.168 Changes in Tropopause Height. Unfortunately this was garbage. It stated there had been a change, and then produced a computer model output as “evidence” (which was nothing of the sort).
However eventually found this paper: Behavior of tropopause height and atmospheric temperature in models, reanalyses, and observations: Decadal changes. Most of the paper is the standard revolting non-science of regurgitating the output from failed climate model – which tell us nothing except the failure of those involved to model the real climate.
But hidden away there was a section of a graph which shows actual measurements as shown to the right. (originally the graphic was much bigger – but I removed all the misleading dross).
The key figure is the top value from which we see the tropopause pressure has dropped by about 4mb from 1979–1993.
WHAT IT MEANS
This either means the tropopause is at the same height and pressure dropped (which would occur with cooling of the atmosphere) or it means the troposphere has moved up with no change in global temperature (or a mixture of both).
What it does not show is global warming!!
This is because the signature of global warming would be either:
- The tropopause stayed at the same physical height but pressure INCREASES because due to gas expansion there is more weight of air above this height
- The tropopause would move up physically with the expanding atmosphere and be at the same pressure but this pressure level would be further from the ground (due to expansion).
From this we can conclude that between 1979-1993 there was:
⇒ No global warming
So, we now have fairly strong evidence that there was not net global warming in the period of this research (1979–1993). Instead, this seems to support overall net cooling of the atmosphere. But how could this happen when measurements on the ground and particularly 3-8 days downwind of major 1970s polluting areas shows warming?
The most likely answer is that there must have been warming, but that warming occurred in only the very portions of the atmosphere. In the rest it must have cooled.
Is this Consistent with the REDUCTION in low level pollution?
In order to get overall cooling in of the troposphere in this period when the ground warmed, the majority of the troposphere must have experienced cooling. Half the bulk of the troposphere lies below 4.7km so if the cooling were a similar magnitude to the warming, the warming would be below 4.7km. Typically rain clouds form up to about 6500feet or 2000m.
Therefore this change in the tropopause together with apparent increased ground temperature particularly downwind of major 1970s polluting areas suggests that we have seen an increase in these areas below 2000 or the cloud forming region.
This is consistent with EAIW (Environmental Action Induced Warming) stemming from reducing low-level pollution after the 1970s clean air acts. Because this only warms the very lowest parts of the atmosphere (in the hot spots shown)
It is not compatible with CO2 warming which would be much more widely spread throughout the atmosphere and would not be localised.