Initial Results of Survey

If you haven’t done the survey you still can here.

First, thanks for those who completed the survey – whilst the the numbers are low with about 10 people having answered the survey, as I have to process them by hand, I’m not too fussed as they are already indicative and the effort is low.

The results are as follows:

1. How much did global temperatures change from approximately 1900 to the 2000
Surv1The “average” here is 0.6C – which is a little lower than the IPCC estimate.

2.& 3. The average temperature of the earth is about 32C warmer than is calculated for a perfectly conducting black body. What is the main (& secondary) cause(s) of this:

Surv2Of the people that answered, there’s a fairly even spread between clouds, IR heat trapping and pressure as the cause of the so called Greenhouse effect. However, what is surprising is that when it comes to the secondary cause, we are fairly united that clouds are a major impact.

4. What was the principle cause of changes in global temperature in the last few thousand years before the modern era (i.e. what caused the little ice-age, medieval warm period – but not the ice age)
Surv3This time, we see a clear front runner for long term variation of solar variation followed by various cycles (like AMO, El Nino, etc) and then “natural variation”. A couple also opted for clouds and volcanoes.

5. Between 1970 and 2000 many show a strong rise in global temperature. What was the principle cause of this .

Surv4This is a similar result to that of the long term change, suggesting most people think the 1970-2000 warming is just a continuation of long-term change. What however is quite astonishing is that CO2 is not mentioned at all. I’d be interested to know whether if I had said: “from 1958″ whether more would have said CO2.

6. You die and meet your maker. They say “I’m fed up will all this stupid argument about my climate … I’m just going to change it once and then it will be the same overall temperature for the next 300 years – WHAT NEW TEMPERATURE WOULD YOU LIKE IT TO BE”.

Surv5Average: 1.11

To avoid the temptation to say “what it is now”, I forced a choice by giving +/-0.5C.

Comment

First, I was surprised that no one offered other alternative options. I’m surprised by the number of people who opted for clouds as the cause of global warming. Which is all the more annoying as I’ve just created a model for global warming temperature which in no way involves clouds.

In terms of long term-variations, solar has come out strongly, but also cycles and “natural variation”. This is one where I might have hoped for some new ideas.

As for the 1970-2000 warming, I framed the question that way because we had a global cooling scare in the 1970s, and there are numerous dataset that seem to suggest some form of change. However, in retrospect CO2 would not be a good answer for the question – which, in itself is a result.

However, the answer I love is the last one which I take to be: “Can we have it just a little bit warmer”.

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