Ever since the 19th century when people first realised that the earth has regularly changed it’s climate, the evidence for ongoing continuous climate change has been growing. This is patently obvious if you look at the longest temperature series from Central England:
Yes there was warming in the 20th century – it’s clearly there! But there was bigger warming from the 1690s to the 1730s. And the cooling after 1730 is comparable to the warming in the 20th century. And in any case, the rise in CO2 was only measured from the mid 20th century and therefore the rise that could be associated with rising CO2 is puny in comparison to several other periods in the last 350 years.
But what is truly daft, is that serious concern about Climate really started with the turn of the millennium (many have suggested it was millennium madness). And, throughout this period of daft insane obsession with “global warming” … the evidence from the satellites clearly shows no significant warming at all:
The obvious answer to both why the cult developed and why we’ve had not discernable warming is the same: 1998 there was an El Nino – and because that created a period of huge warming for a few years, that both triggered the daft “Glassy-eyed cult” (GEC), but also meant that any period from 1998 onwards would be biased toward cooling.
The problem for the GEC was that the 1998 warming was not followed by anything comparable until 2016, and by then the data had accumulated showing that the warming had stopped. So, whilst the GEC hoped that 2016 would retrigger the climate hysteria, instead it triggered the election of Trump.
With Trump we will almost certainly see a draining of the climate swamp. This will reveal the full horror within: a culture of bogus data, fabricated results, politically inspired changes, attacks using government money and power on anyone and everything that dares to question their pseudo-science. And with that junk cleared out, we should get back to the bedrock of real science.
That will reveal 20th century warming, but not only will it remove the bogus “Upjustments”, but it will also give us back a true idea of the scale and strength of natural variation. Natural variation which for various reasons I feel likely to give us cooling in the next decade. (Note: because climate is so difficult to predict you’ll notice I started my prediction last year when I could claim to start from an El Nino year!!)
But whatever the climate does, it’s not going to warm as the GEC said it would, so in 20 years time the appalling behaviour of the climate-swamp dwelling GEC is not going to look good. In one hundred years time – when they know the important scientific advances that were missed by this generation of academics because of their obsession with global warming it will look something between daft and criminal.
That “fading into irrelevance” kind of scenario, however, is without NOAAgate. There now appears to be at least two whistle-blowers. Dr Bates is the first, the other(s) is/are unknown. They could just substantiate what Dr Bates has said, but they could have much more evidence to damn NOAA and perhaps others. And investigations like this, where there are already 2+ whistle-blowers, have a tendency to bring out more. So, the investigations might start small, but they could quickly grow “alarmingly”
And as I have said before: the Republicans will want to make a clean sheet of NOAA and others like NASA to ensure that there is no rumbling Obama inspired scandal that remains hidden undetected to blow up in their own face just before the next elections.