La Nina cooling is coming – colder January forecast

Early this year I was confidently saying: “Prediction: Strong La Nina“. Then in late September as NOAA called off their “La Nina watch” I was beginning to think I might have to change my views.

Of course, as La Nina conditions tends to make hurricanes more likely, I can’t help noting that on 2nd September the US had Hurricane Hermine – and how convenient it was for NOAA to say “it wasn’t due to La Nina conditions” in an election year.

And let’s be blunt – NOAA and NASA now have form for changing data to fabricate the trends they want – so why not fabricate an ENSO trend just for the election?? (At least until the election)

Now, however, I note NOAA have again had to admit that conditions are moving toward La Nina which following a strong El Nino, suggests this La Nina will be stronger and/or longer than “normal”.

What does this mean for UK?

In summary given the ENSO situation coupled with our historical data a mixed winter looks likely with a range of weather possible. That may seem like a bit of a ‘easy way out’ in forecasting terms but given the current guidance there isn’t a lot to go on. Our data at least points to January as being the most likely month for cold weather but it is entirely possible late December may prove cold as well. Equally December could prove a milder and more unsettled month with February perhaps turning out drier with a mixture of warm and cold temperatures. As ever there are many days and weeks before winter starts and we’ll be updating on the run in once more data becomes available or indeed more clear.

For a full description CW Weather (Note this was written when NOAA had dismissed another La Nina)

Also, based on my own analysis and similar changes to the Atlantic East coast as Pacific, there is a potential (but not prediction) for higher precipitation than normal.

However the forecast for summer 2017 is not good because La Nina conditions are associated with poor summers in the UK. And rather than building up this summer and peaking this autumn as usual, the effect has been delayed (due to the strong El Nino?) and so the La Nina effect looks most likely to peak in Autumn 2017 – suggesting a long build up over early 2017 and so it will have the greatest effects in summer 2017 … and I assume extending into winter 2017.

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