True to form Anders has commented that ” A recent paper by Lehner et al. shows that all large eruption since 1951 coincided with El Niño events.” Of course he completely fails to realise the importance of this and then digresses into a long irrelevant articles about global warming.
But as I have predicted that warming and volcanic activity are linked, this comment obviously made me think. There are as I suggest two possibilities:
- That the El Nino cycle in some way triggers volcanoes.
- That volcanoes trigger El Nino.
The first would obviously be the climate extremists preference … because by fabricating CO2 warming they could then get headlines of “humans trigger volcanoes” (in the same way everything is caused by CO2). And yes, I have predicted that crustal heating from changes in surface temperature would lead to volcanic activity. But the scale of change is far far too small. We are probably only talking about heat within a decade penetrating a few meters into the ground. Yes that will cause some stresses, but not enough I think to trigger geological processes.
But the second one is more interesting. Today I speculated that geothermal heat in the oceans would warm the bottom layers of the oceans and cause instabilities. In effect the bottom layer would heat up until it became lighter than the water above, and then we’d see a pretty rapid overturning of the ocean layers. This would explain the semi-periodic nature of the El Nino and other cycles.
But, if we were also to see an increase in geological processes (of which the volcano were but one symptom mid way through) … then potentially the geological processes might cause both the El Nino and the volcanoes.
However, I think that observation is just too obvious for some people: