There are many reasons to believe the temperature trend is much cooler than the corrupt figure given for surface data.
1. The data is massively adjusted (equivalent to all the warming since 1940)
2. The stations just happen to have been located conveniently on the edge of urban areas – the areas that were mist subject to changes in the 20th century as urban areas increased.
3. There is proven poor siting (which causes additional warming to rural). The problem here is that they turn a nod and a wink to poor sites that help increase the warming trend where a quality organisation would have dealt with them.
4. Then there is the multiple instances of site specific tampering with data – which looks like individuals changing sites to cause additional warming to everything above.
5. Then there is the oft change in methodologies to select those that show the highest warming.
6. Then there is the way they intentionally remove sites with a cooling trend from the data (possibly as part of 5).
7. There is the fact the temperatures are far from global with e.g. most of central S.America and Africa being missed out.
8. Then there is the fraudulent misuse of ocean temperature data (changing good data without a warming trend to fit bad data with a warming trend).
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