Met Office “One of the warmest Junes” – how unremarkable is that?

The met office are now saying that “Early statistics from the Met Office National Climate Information Centre show that this has been one of the warmest Junes in records dating back to 1910. Based on figures up until 25 June the mean temperature for the UK for the month is 14.4 °C, making it joint 6th at the moment”. (link)

So, in 104 years, this is the sixth. There are six chances in 104 of being sixth or better. So the chances are around  5.7%.

There are however 12 months in a year. Plus four seasons that are potential records, plus the year itself. That makes 17 potential records each year. So the chances of one of these being a record is … 98%

In other words we expect one such record each year.

If however, we include “coldest”, “wettest”, “windiest”, “driest”, there are a half dozen or so such records each year.

If we then start adding records such as “the coldest 1st may” … then there are 365 x 5 … or over a thousand such records each year.

So not remarkable at all.

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4 Responses to Met Office “One of the warmest Junes” – how unremarkable is that?

  1. If the BBC report this but not the coldest etc it provides a mathematical proof of their bias. We all know they are corrupt lying state propagandists but since most news is “subjective” it is difficult to absolutely prove.

  2. mpcraig says:

    It has all the hallmarks of a propaganda technique. Take selectively mundane climate items and make them seem important. This happens over and over.

    England has warmed in the past 104 years. For months or days or years to be in the top whatever is perfectly expected. A record cold would be quite remarkable.

  3. catweazle666 says:

    Lies, damned lies and statistics…

  4. Richard Mallett says:

    That’s why I believe that we should look at trends; for the UK, from the Hadley Centre CET record at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ and ‘Download Data’ at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

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