Brexitday meal.

Cki0t6kWYAADYWz.jpg largeThe first item on the list has got to be Brussel sprouts – as there’s bound to be a rush – because any celebrating of leaving Brussels has got to involve sprouts in some way.

Next is Champagne  – but as that is just pretentious plonk dressed up it’ll be something like an Australian sparkling wine.

I think it should involve some type of bird – mainly so that I can stuff it. So, in retrospect, it’s a pity Turkey didn’t get into the EU in time or it would be the obvious choice. It could be a “swan song” for the EU – but that may be difficult. Out for a duck … that’ll do. What do I stuff it with? Possibly some kind of raspberry concoction? Perhaps Raspberry? No, I think some Oatmeal, leek and apple stuffing. (Scotland, Wales & England) And as sauce … we have the delightful sounding “Guinness gravy”  (N.Ireland) … although the Guinness may never reach the table.

I hate EU adverts – they are just like the EU – they’re the ones that are dubbed are always condescending and ALWAYS some brand I don’t want. So, in reference to them I’ll get British Bacon to put on the duck (in reference to the “Danish” advertising campaign).

In reference to the Euro – and the failing countries of Portugal Ireland Greece & Spain – Pigs in blankets!

For starch … French Fries … no way!! It’ll be that quintessential ancient British custom of chopping things up and frying them in grease … chips.

And  for pudding … it’s got to be rhubarb in reference to all the EU red tape. …. indeed how do we serve it

… as rhubarb crumble!

Some alternatives:

  • New Zealand Lamb
  • Pancakes with maple syrup
  • Curry from Indian
  • Hongkong: chinese
  • Beef Jerky from S.Africa
  • Nigerian Spam

Of course, with the British empire once covering much of the globe, the world is our Oyster in terms of how we celebrate our independence and reuniting with the rest of the world outside the EU.

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The Enerconic or society energy multiplier

In my last article Enerconics II I introduced the concept of the energy multiplier. In other words, we effectively create a pseudo-perpetual motion machine in the sense that the total apparent energy available to society is far higher than the amount of energy we sue.

However, the explanation is very simple: we consume energy once (thus abiding by the laws of science) but we use it – or at least the things produced by it – many times. We can measure this multiplier by:

n = (GDP per capita) / (Cost per KWh * KWh per capita)

And in modern society n is about 4. Continue reading

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When theory hits the buffer – maybe CO2 does not have an effect?

I’ve come across evidence that could be interpreted as showing that there is some kind of mechanism in the atmosphere that compensates for changes in greenhouse gas composition so that changes in CO2 levels would be insignificant. This is in no sense finished work, but is instead a very brief outline to make others aware of this potential. Continue reading

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Understanding Global Temperature IX – the role of CO2

Summary

Can I see anything except global greening that’s due to CO2? I can honestly say No. And anyone who says they can see any change due to CO2 is crackers. In contrast, I am now reasonably confident that Environmental Action in the 1970s was the major cause of post 1970s warming and that the preceding increase in pollution may well explain the global cooling scare.

Intro

See also: previous article that lists all other articles in this series

If I were an alien looking down on earth, the only noticeable change that I could detect as a result of rising CO2 would be a greening of the planet which leading to increased harvests has been undoubtedly a good thing. Continue reading

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The Paris Treaty is Dead

One of the great debates amongst sceptics these days is whether Donald Trump can unilaterally withdraw from the climate “treaty” … because without ratification it’s not binding on the next president.

However, as always we “do it by the book” sceptics have missed the obvious. He will just ignore this non-binding treaty. As the Toronto Sun puts it

While Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will never admit it, the 2015 Paris climate treaty Canada signed with great fanfare died last week.

It died because of the release of U.S. President Donald Trump’s 2018 budget plan.

While Trump has to get it through the U.S. Congress, which means parts of it are unlikely to survive, his clear intention to gut U.S. climate change policy by dismantling the Environmental Protection Agency spells the death knell for the Paris treaty.

Trump is proposing deeper cuts to the EPA than any other government agency, reducing its $8.2 billion budget by 31%, laying off 19% of its 15,000 staff and cutting 50 programs.

As the leader of the developed world, America’s participation in the Paris treaty was vital to the United Nations’ Paris treaty.That’s why the UN abandoned its previous commitment to binding emission reduction targets in Paris, to get the U.S., then under Obama, on board.

A treaty with binding targets would have required Obama to get the deal approved by the U.S. Senate, impossible given its Republican majority.

At Obama’s behest, the Paris treaty was designed so he could introduce his Climate Action Plan through EPA regulations, rather than legislation. (Toronton Sun)

In other words, third rate “science”, was being used to justify political action which Obama was going to force upon the US population with no consent, bypassing congress and the senate and using presidential executive orders.

But because Obama’s actions had no constitutional backing nor any backing from any binding treaty signed by the Congress and Senate all Trump has to do is to instruct the EPA to ignore those presidential orders and the Paris agreement is dead.

In the past I’ve likened the climate issue to a war. The sceptics have now taken almost all the high ground, and now the main alarmist weapon of the “Paris Treaty” has been effectively removed from the battle. The last remaining battle is for the end of “fake science” and the return of honesty, integrity and reproducibility.

 

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Understanding Global Temperature VIII – It was the greens wot warmed us!!

Little did I realise when I started looking for a metric to use to represent the real global temperature for the last few hundred years that I might stumble across such compelling evidence.

First to recap.

Understanding the Global Temperature “discrepancies”
Started by looking at the various temperature series to try to understand the differences.

Understanding the Global Temperature II

Took this further and suggested that a combination of satellite temperatures and before that global sea surface temperatures and before that the Central England Temperature records would form the best basis of a proxy.

Understanding the Global Temperature III

Discussed the the discrepancy between sea and land based metrics which depart from each other around 1970 and are particularly acute in the northern hemisphere, but noted that the year-to-year based changes shown on UAH were found only in the land based metrics.

Understanding Global Temperature IV

Presented a pseudo proxy based on all the above work. (And the next step was to check this against various proxies).

Understanding the Global Temperature V – Met Balloon Data

Presented an analysis of the metrological balloon data. This was separated by height and because it was not clear which height I should use, I plotted the lot, only to find a very obvious change in temperature trend with height. Unfortunately, the hand waving argument I used to understand whether this could be the “fingerprint of CO2″ was wrong.

Understanding the Global Temperature VI

So, the next article corrected the previous analysis showing that the change from heating to cooling occurred at ~10km. This is both the height at which aeroplanes fly AND the top of the troposphere. So whilst it could be contrails, it could also be something happening in the troposphere.

However, on the basis that the main heating discrepancies occurred over northern land and might be explained by contrails at around 10km, I investigated the global distribution of aeroplane flights and tried to correlate this to the 1985-2014 map of global temperature trends. This worked for group based winds, but not higher ones, leaving me questioning whether contrails were really responsible.

Understanding the Global Temperature VII

Went back to look at the original aim which was a global temperature reconstruction. And asked the question: why is the global satellite year-to-year temperature change best reflected by 1/7 of the earth’s surface: the land-based year-to-year changes, but the long term satellite (&CET) changes by sea surface temperature. (I have no answer to this yet).

Understanding Global Temperature VIII

Today, I’m going to look more at the global flow of industrialised aerosols and present a possible explanation for global temperature changes – at least since 1970, and potentially long before.

Continue reading

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Enerconics II

It’s a while since I originally wrote my first article “Enerconics: The Relationship between Energy and GDP” in which I presented evidence showing that GDP was closely related to energy usage both in terms of differences between global economies and also historically. A typical diagram is as follows:

This shows a very clear relationship which in 2007 was  $0.45 of GDP per KWH of energy. In 2007 the average cost per KWH was about $0.09. Continue reading

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SNP: liars & economically insane.

C60idFsWkAYoKgh.jpg largeIn 2014 the Scottish people voted decisively to stay with the UK. And since then the consensus has remained the same with a majority against leaving the UK and particularly against having another extremely divisive and hate filled referendum.

At the time the SNP promised that the referendum would be a “once in a lifetime”. They did so for very cynical reasons. If there were a suggestion that we could have the same referendum in a decade or so – given the appalling management of the Scottish economy and their daft policies (like appointing a state Guardian to be in charge of all children)  many people (including me) wanted to wait to see if Scottish politicians might one day mature enough to warrant a vote to leave the UK.

Continue reading

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All time Top Articles

Since I started this blog at the beginning of  2011 I’ve published over 1200 articles mostly focussing on climate and energy. But it often surprises me when I look at the statistics that many of the articles that get read most have little or nothing to do with climate.

Scots: more words for rain than Eskimos for snow More stats 10,940
The Truth about the Highland Clearances More stats 6,632
I’m now a CO2 denier More stats 3,483
Enerconics: The Relationship between Energy and GDP More stats 3,024
How to convince a sceptic – just give them the data More stats 2,202
Proof: recent temperature trends are not abnormal More stats 2,073
We live in luxury that even kings a few centuries ago could only dream of. More stats 1,894
How to run a house off the car battery More stats 1,379
How to get off the ground with nothing but water! (almost) More stats 1,163
A scientist’s guide to greenhouse warming. More stats 1,143
Scientists discover why wet soil is dark More stats 1,071
And the last global warming pillar falls – I declare global warming doomsday claptrap to be disproven. More stats 985
The Academic Ape: Instinctive aggression and boundary enforcing behaviour in academia More stats 942
Why are climate-extremists so obsessed with conspiracy theory? More stats 927
This year global cooling – now even Trenberth agrees with me More stats 873

 

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Understanding the Global Temperature VII

I started trying to reconstruct a global temperature graph. I found that land based measurements like CRUTEM were reading too high and identified this as massive warming in Northern hemisphere land based measurements.

Sea surface measurements like HADSST gave longer term trends that were more consistent with satellite data and other metrics. However, they did not have the same year to year changes as the satellite data.

So, I proposed to take the fast changes from CRUTEM and add it to the longer term trend of HADSST as I hope the following graph shows:

Reconstrition20The top green is CRUTEM (land) – which leads the pack showing excessive warming. The lower green (toward the end) is CRUTEM less any longer term trends. The blue line is the sea temperature from HADSST with short term trends removed.

Purple shows UAH6 satellite and Red shows my reconstructed metric which simply adds long term trends from the sea measurements to short term trends from land.

Discussion

This is clearly a good fit. “HASELER” is a bit low in the 1998 El Nino year and a bit too high in the 2016 El Nino year. But generally HASELER reconstruction follows UAH6 well.

Except … it shouldn’t!!

I’m happy that the sea temperatures representing 6/7 of the globe might represent the vast majority of global temperatures and so the sea long term trend will be close to that of the global temperature. But why on earth does the short term changes in global temperature reflect only the land-based measurements. It should only be 1/7 of the changes.

This suggests to me that most of the short term changes in global temperatures are affected by what happens over land and that the atmospheric transfer into the sea is relatively poor.

This suggests that over short periods the air flowing over the land, determines the temperature (or is determined in temperature by) the atmospheric temperature. But that what determines long term temperatures is the sea (or what is determined by long term temperatures).

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